How to decompress China's foreign trade in 2023

      In 2022, China's foreign trade has withstood heavy pressure and achieved stable growth. Analysts here believe that although there are more challenges next year, but the tried and tested Chinese foreign trade is still expected to stabilize and improve, driving the overall economic recovery.


  At present, China's foreign trade as a whole is running smoothly. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the first 11 months of China's imports and exports worth 38.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Among them, exports of 21.84 trillion yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year; imports of 16.5 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; trade surplus widened 42.8%. The scale of China's foreign trade hit a record high again this year, almost without doubt.


  This performance is also quite bright compared with other major economies around the world. Japan has 16 consecutive months of trade deficit, including November trade deficit hit a record high for the same period in the past decade; South Korea has set a new record trade deficit since this year.


  But China's foreign trade is not a high worry. Due to sluggish foreign demand, China's single-month import and export growth rate has declined for four consecutive months, the fourth quarter of the traditional peak season of foreign trade does not seem to "Want up". And in 2023, the downturn in foreign demand will bring a greater test to China's foreign trade.


  According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) latest projections, global economic growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023, and there is a 25% probability that the growth rate will be less than 2%. According to IMF President Georgieva's judgment, at least one-third of countries will fall into recession next year. OECD (OECD) forecast more pessimistic, that next year the global economic growth rate may be only 2.2%.


  According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of global merchandise trade may grow by only 1 percent in 2023, much lower than the previous forecast of 3.4 percent, which will increase the risk of global recession. And the Ukraine crisis shows no sign of abating.


  Lian Ping, chief economist and director of the Institute of Plantation Investment, believes that the gloomy growth outlook for major economies in Europe and the United States means that total overseas demand will decline next year, coupled with inflation in Europe and the United States still at a high level, the Fed's continued interest rate hikes, and the accelerated adjustment of industrial chains and supply chains worldwide, China's exports will face greater pressure next year.


  Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said in an interview with China News Service that, against the background of overall shrinking external demand, the battle for the "share of the cake" in the international market is bound to become more and more intense next year. China must seize the time to increase efforts to stabilize foreign trade, in order to get a head start and avoid a significant decline in foreign trade growth.


  Action has already begun. Following Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other major foreign trade provinces to organize foreign trade enterprises to Europe, Japan and other places to "grab orders", many local, industry associations in China have acted to facilitate the outbound exhibitors, business negotiations. Some of the fast-moving enterprises have tasted the sweetness. For example, during the International Sporting Goods Exhibition in Munich, Germany, more than 50 exhibitors signed orders amounting to about 18 million euros, the intention to order an amount of about 35 million euros.


  China's former Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo said that private enterprises have long been tested by the market, most experienced, responsive and innovative. Private enterprises do not miss the opportunity to go to sea to "grab orders", will provide strong support for China's stable foreign trade.


  Macro level, as next year's Chinese economic policy "wind vane", the recently held Central Economic Work Conference has made it clear that we should make greater efforts to promote foreign trade to stabilize the scale and structure. Analysts believe that this foreshadows a series of policies aimed at fully stimulating the vitality of enterprises, reduce the burden on enterprises, and promote market diversification of stable foreign trade will be introduced one after another.


  Wei said, with the effect of the policies continue to be released, coupled with the enthusiasm of foreign trade enterprises and the spirit of boldness to be fully mobilized, China's foreign trade next year is expected to continue to grow steadily and contribute to the Chinese economy.